World Cup Betting - South Africa 2010 Odds
Four Reasons Spain Will Win the World Cup in 2010 (Mar 3, 2010 10:36)
Spain are one of the perennial underachievers on football’s biggest stage. Despite boasting some of the biggest club sides and best players in the history of the sport, they haven’t progressed beyond the quarter final stage of a World Cup finals since they finished fourth way back in 1950.
However, all could change in 2010. Spain arrive in South Africa as European champions and with a 100% qualifying record and the pre-tournament favourites are fancied to finally break their World Cup hoodoo this summer. Here are four reasons why Spain are the 4/1 favourites to triumph in South Africa.
The Strikers
Statistics (based on goal importance and the tournament they were scored in) demonstrated that David Villa was the most prolific goalscorer in the world between 2005-2009. The Valencia forward is one of the world’s best strikers and he has a fantastic record of 36 goals in just 54 international appearances. Villa is Spain’s second highest goal scorer of all time, and won the Golden Boot at the European Championships in 2008 with four goals.
Alongside Villa is the Liverpool striker Fernando Torres. Torres has scored 23 international goals including the decisive goal in the Euro 2008 Final and has struck up a lethal partnership with Villa. He also has a superb goal scoring record for his club side with 50 goals in just 72 Liverpool appearances.
The two men are arguably the best strike force in international football. As Villa has said, “We’re a good partnership. We both chase down defenders, put pressure on and fight to create chances for each other. We work well together.”
The Form
Between 2006 and 2009, Spain broke the world record for the most international matches undefeated. They won 32 out of 35 matches in an extraordinary run which was finally ended with their 2-0 defeat to the USA in the 2009 Confederations Cup semi-final.
This run included another world record of fifteen consecutive wins and Spain won ten out of ten matches in World Cup qualifying, including tricky away wins in Turkey, Bosnia and Belgium.
Spain are, without doubt, the form team in international football and their rise to the top of the FIFA rankings is based on this unprecedented run of success.
The Draw
It would be fair to say that Spain were handed a kind draw in South Africa. They have been drawn alongside Chile, Switzerland and Honduras in Group H and will expect to top the group and progress comfortable. Indeed, topping the group could well be vital with the second place team in Group H likely to face Brazil in the first knockout round.
Whilst Spain’s second round opponents will be tricky - they are likely to play Portugal or the Ivory Coast - their route to the final after that looks reasonably straightforward. Italy are likely to await in the quarter-finals before a tie against probably Germany or Argentina. There should be nothing to scare the Spanish there.
The Midfield
When Barcelona won the 2009 Champions League Final, even though Samuel Eto’o and Lionel Messi’s goals may have taken the headlines, it was widely considered that the midfield duo of Andres Iniesta and Xavi were the key to the Catalans’ success.
The pair were also key to Spain’s success at the 2008 European Championships as their blend of playmaking, tackling and passing skills dovetail perfectly. If you then consider that Vicente del Bosque can play Iniesta and Xavi alongside the more defensively minded Marcos Senna, the more attacking minded Cesc Fabregas or alongside the superb passing of Xavi Alonso, Spain have an embarrassment of riches in the centre of their midfield.
With the Valencia forward David Silva providing ammunition from the wings and the promising 21year olds Sergio Busquets and Juan Mata also competing to make del Bosque’s 23 man World Cup squad, there are few teams that can boast the strength in depth that Spain can.
Verdict
Spain have arrived at a World Cup with great players in the past only to disappoint us on the big stage by failing to beat the likes of Northern Ireland, Belgium, Paraguay, South Korea and Nigeria in recent years. However, with two of international football’s most prolific strikers, impressive recent form, a kind draw and a midfield that is the envy of the world, 2010 could finally be Spain’s year.
World Cup 2010 - History Repeating for England? (Feb 26, 2010 12:56)
Betting Guide - England's Stage of Elimination
South Africa 2010 will be England’s thirteenth appearance at the World Cup finals. Will it prove to be lucky as Fabio Capello’s men emulate the team of 1966, or will it prove to be unlucky and see the Three Lions eliminated at the first hurdle for the first time since 1958?
Here’s our look at England’s past World Cup performances with odds on them repeating such a performance in 2010.
First round elimination – 6/1
England’s first World Cup appearance was in Brazil in 1950 and the Three Lions started with a win as Stan Mortensen and Wilf Mannion scored in a 2-0 win over Chile. However, their following game remains one of the tournament’s biggest upsets as the USA triumphed 1-0 in Belo Horizonte. A further 1-0 defeat to Spain followed and England were eliminated at the first hurdle.
Although they remained unbeated, England fared little better in Sweden in 1958. Three draws against Austria, the Soviet Union and the eventual winners Brazil saw England once again eliminated in the first round.
It is 6/1 that England are knocked out of the 2010 World Cup in the group stages, and with only USA, Algeria and Slovenia to play, it would be a major surprise and disappointment if Capello’s side were to emulate the poor performance of 60 years ago.
Second round elimination – 11/4
After yet another change to the tournament format, England reached the ’second group stage’ of the 1982 World Cup in Spain after impressive wins over France, Czechoslovakia and Kuwait. However, Ron Greenwood’s side couldn’t conjure up a goal in 180 minutes of football in the second group stage, drawing 0-0 with West Germany and Spain to be narrowly eliminated.
England were once again knocked out of the World Cup at the second round stage in 1998. In a match featuring Michael Owen’s wondergoal and David Beckham’s red card, Sol Campbell’s header was inexplicably chalked off by the Danish referee and Argentina went on to win the penalty shootout after missed spot kicks from David Batty and Paul Ince.
England’s likely second round opponents in 2010 are Australia, Ghana or Serbia and so, whilst 11/4 might be the ‘favourite’ in the ’stage of elimination’ market, it would be a considerable disappointment if England were to go out in the last sixteen.
Quarter final elimination – 7/2
The quarter-finals of a World Cup have been England’s Achilles heel since 1954 as on no less than six occasions have England fallen at the quarter-final hurdle.
In 1954 it was the powerhouse of Uruguay that ended England’s chances, Nat Lofthouse and Tom Finney scoring in a 4-2 defeat. Brazil’s 3-1 win saw off England in Chile in 1962, and many still find the 1970 quarter-final too painful to remember as West Germany came from 2-0 down to defeat England 3-2 after extra time in León.
Bobby Robson’s side were unfortunate to be eliminated in the 1986 quarter finals by the infamous ‘Hand of God’ before Sven Goran Erkisson’s side succumbed to Brazil in 2002 and Portugal in 2006.
It’s 7/2 that England’s quarter-final hoodoo continues in South Africa, and with tricky potential opponents such as France or Argentina waiting in the last eight, it could be another last eight heartbreak for the Three Lions.
Semi-final elimination 10/3
For many people, the 1990 World Cup is their earliest memory of the tournament. England rather stumbled into the semi-finals in Italy with a sweeper system installed as the start of the tournament, with the self-same ’sweeper’ Mark Wright deployed as an emergency centre forward in England’s dramatic late win over Cameroon.
Wins over Egypt, Belgium and Cameroon had carried Bobby Robson’s side into the semi-finals and despite playing extremely well against West Germany in Turin, the match finished 1-1, Pearce’s penalty was saved, Waddle missed the target and England were out.
A semi-final appearance in 2010 is probably the least that Fabio Capello expects of his side, and with the likes of Brazil waiting at this stage, it’s realistically the best England can hope for. The 10/3 on a semi-final elimination will be a punt based on both expectation and hope.
Runners-up 6/1
England have never been the runners-up in a World Cup but it is 6/1 that they are the beaten finalists in Johannesburg on 11 July. The Three Lions’ defeat at the quarter-final stage of a major tournament deflates a nation; how will they be after losing in a World Cup Final?
Winners 11/2
The 30th July 1966 is probably the most celebrated date in English football as Alf Ramsey’s ‘wingless wonders’ defeated West Germany 4-2 in the final at Wembley. The likes of Bobby Charlton, Gordon Banks, Geoff Hurst, Martin Peters and Bobby Moore are national icons as England joined a group of just five nations (at the time) who had become World Champions.
England are the 11/2 third favourites to emulate the team of 1966 and bring the World Cup back to the birthplace of football. To do it, they’ll have to beat some superb teams and, probably, a couple of ex-World Cup winning nations. Can they do it? Tough, but not impossible.
“Italy To Win World Cup 2010″ Say Scientists (Feb 23, 2010 17:58)
World Cup 2010 - A Simulation
With the World Cup just three months away, the team behind the leading football game Championship Manager have recently decided to simulate the entire tournament, from start to finish.
Featuring the thirty two teams, correct squads and formations, the team set about playing all sixty four matches of the 2010 World Cup in full to try and determine who would triumph. If the actual tournament pans out in the same way, there will be plenty of opportunities to profit on your betting….
Germany eliminated in group stage
The biggest casualties of the group stages in the simulated 2010 World Cup were Germany. Joachim Low’s side are 7/2 to be eliminated in the group stages in South Africa and a late Asamoah Gyan goal saw the 1990 winners crash out at the expense of Ghana.
England reach quarter finals
England’s progress through Group C was smooth. In their opening match against the USA, the simulation saw the Three Lions win 3-1 with goals from Rooney, Lampard and Gerrard. Fabio Capello’s side were also in good form in their second match, with two goals from Rooney and two from Jermain Defoe sealing qualification with a 4-1 thumping of Algeria.
With a place in the last sixteen already secure, England draw 0-0 with Slovenia in the final group match, a result which sees the Slovenians qualify at the expense of the USA. England are 4/11 to win Group C in South Africa.
After winning the group, the simulated World Cup saw England face Group D runners-up, Australia, in Rustenburg. England are once again on top form as first half goals from Rooney, Lampard and Gerrard give the Three Lions a 3-0 lead. Australia have two men red-carded in the second half and England win 3-0.
However, according to the simulation, England fall at the next hurdle and it is 7/2 that England will be eliminated at the quarter final stage for the third consecutive tournament. This time it is their old rivals Argentina who end their campaign, a Lionel Messi goal giving Diego Maradona’s side a narrow 1-0 win in Johannesburg.
Ghana lead the Africa challenge
After eliminating Germany in Group D, it is the Black Stars of Ghana that lead the African challenge in 2010. An exciting quarter final tie saw Ghana beat France after extra time to become the first African country to reach a World Cup semi-final. The fairytale was ended there, however, as four time champions Italy recorded a 2-0 victory.
Italy win the World Cup
Italy are a 12/1 chance to win the World Cup, and if this simulation is anything to go by, that’s where your money should be.
After qualifying from Group F with ease, it takes a nervy penalty shootout for Marcello Lippi’s side to defeat a gallant Holland. In the quarter finals they face pre-tournament favourites Spain and, in the match of the tournament, the Azzuri prevail, beating Vicente del Bosque’s side 4-3 in a thrilling encounter.
A workmanlike 2-0 win over Ghana in the semi-finals follows, before Italy are drawn against 1978 and 1986 champions Argentina in the World Cup Final. There, top scorer Alberto Gilardino’s first half goal proves to be the difference between the two sides and Italy are crowned the World Champions for the fifth time.
Verdict
If the World Cup proper does pan out like this simulation, then the 33/1 about it being an Italy v Argentina final would be a good place to start your betting. You could back Ghana to reach the semi-finals at 10/1 and Portugal to reach the last four at 5/1. Italy’s Alberto Gilardino is 33/1 to be tournament top goalscorer and you can back Argentina at 4/1 to reach the final.
I know that it might be only fantasy, but with these football management simulations getting ever increasingly realistic, you just never know….
World Cup 2010 – Factors That Won’t Help England (Feb 12, 2010 15:37)
Are England's Odds Justified?
England are 11/2 third favourites for the World Cup and will benefit from a very favourable draw for South Africa. However, there are various factors that won’t help the Three Lions as they attempt to emulate the team of 1966 and win the World Cup.
The Locations
England will be based in South Africa at the Bafokeng Sports Campus, 1,500 metres above sea level and close to Rustenburg, the location of their opening game against the USA. They also return to Rustenburg for their last sixteen match should they win their group.
However, Fabio Capello’s side face a long journey and significant change of conditions for their matches against Slovenia and Algeria and their potential quarter final clash. England must make the 861 mile (1,385 km) trip to Cape Town for the game against Algeria six days after their opening fixture and face another 687 mile (1,105 km) journey to Port Elizabeth to face Slovenia. Not only are there long journeys to be made to these venues but the matches will also be played nearer sea level where the conditions will be much more windy and humid. How Capello’s side acclimatise themselves to these changes in conditions could be vital to their progress.
The Pressure
England are placed at number 7 in FIFA’s latest ‘world rankings’. If that seeding were applied to the World Cup, England could expect to be knocked out in the quarter finals. In a tennis tournament, that’s how they’d be expected to perform.
Why, then, do the bookies make them 11/2 third favourites to win the World Cup and why would the British public be devastated by a quarter-final exit?
Whether the arrival of Fabio Capello or the ease by which England qualified is to blame for raising expectation, their odds do look out of kilter with the reality. Would you automatically expect England to beat the likes of France, Germany, Holland, Argentina, Portugal or Italy at a World Cup? I wouldn’t, and so making them more likely to win in South Africa than those sides seems to be heaping an awful lot of pressure on Capello’s side.
Their Record Against The Big Teams
England have lost four matches under Fabio Capello. Ignoring the 1-0 defeat to Ukraine in a dead rubber having already qualified for the World Cup, England’s defeats came against Spain, France and Brazil.
It’s all very well guiding your side to wins over the likes of Switzerland, Kazakhstan and Andorra but when England have faced big names, they have generally come up short. OK, so a creditable 2-2 draw against Holland in Amsterdam and a good 2-1 win over Germany were promising results, but when England have played the top sides under Capello they have been found wanting. Against Spain and Brazil, England were comprehensively outplayed.
What makes us think this is suddenly going to change at the World Cup?
The Injuries
For a few weeks in 2002, Deportivo la Coruna midfielder Aldo Duscher was England’s #1 villain and ‘metatarsal’ became the most used word in football. The injury David Beckham suffered whilst on Manchester United duty almost kept him out of the 2002 finals although when he did play he was a shadow of the player that had almost single-handedly taken his country to the Finals.
Wayne Rooney had burst onto the international scene prior to Euro 2004 and his goals had carried England to the quarter-finals. However, an ankle injury forced him out of their vital game with Portugal after just 27 minutes with England winning 1-0, and with him went England’s chances.
First choice right back Gary Neville also missed the tournament in 2002 with a broken foot and England’s final three matches in 2006 with a calf injury.
However well-prepared Capello is, and however sure he is of his final 23, somewhere along the line an injury will cost England. Whether they have the strength in depth to cover an injury to Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Wayne Rooney, Ashley Cole, John Terry or Steven Gerrard is another matter.
The Penalties
No. Perhaps let’s not go there, shall we?
World Cup 2010 Betting Preview – European Champions Performances (Feb 12, 2010 15:07)
Even numbered years are kind to football fans, as in-between the World Cup Finals we get to enjoy the European Championships. Bearing in mind that seven of the top nine favourites for the 2010 World Cup are from Europe, the Euros are almost as tough a competition to win as the World Cup itself.
Held two years before a World Cup Finals, the European Championships should be a reasonable pointer towards international form. You’d expect teams that had performed well in a European Championships to fare well in the World Cup two years later. Therefore, as European Champions should we expect Spain to win in South Africa?
The simple answer is ‘no’.
Astonishingly, since the first European Championships in 1960, only one side has ever gone onto win the World Cup after winning the European Championship. The superb West Germany side of the early 1970s won the Euros in Belgium in 1972 before beating Holland in the World Cup Final in 1974.
Indeed, on only two further occasions has a European Champion gone on to reach the World Cup Final. Italy beat Yugoslavia in 1968 before losing the World Cup Final to Brazil in 1970 and West Germany won the Euros in 1980 before losing the World Cup Final to Italy in 1982.
In recent years, European Champions have a terrible record at the World Cup. Only 1996 winners Germany have had a decent performance when they reached the 1998 quarter finals. 1988 champions Holland went out in the first knockout round in Italy in 1990. 2000 winners France went out of the 2002 tournament in the first round after being beaten by Senegal and Denmark. And, surprise 1992 and 2004 champions Denmark and Greece didn’t even qualify for the 1994 and 2006 Finals.
Spain also have previous poor form in this regard. A talented Spanish side won the 1964 European Championships as goals from Jesús María Pereda and Marcelino Martínez gave them a 2-1 win over the Soviet Union in front of 79,115 at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid. However, Spain failed even to qualify for the 1966 World Cup Finals in England.
At least this Spain side have managed to qualify for the World Cup after their European Championships triumph but at 4/1 the omens do not look great for them winning in South Africa. Taking into account the poor record of European Champions and the fact that recent winners have underperformed so dramatically at the World Cup, I’d prefer to look elsewhere.
Mind you, the beaten finalists at a European Championships have an even worse record. No losing finalist at a European Championships has ever reached the World Cup final two years later. That doesn’t bode well for Germany who, at 14/1, are many people’s tip to win in South Africa.
Spain do have a talented team and records are there to be broken. However, making them the World Cup favourites after a five decade legacy of underperformance by European Champions on the biggest stage can be questioned.
World Cup Betting Preview - Who Will Reach The Semi Finals? (Feb 11, 2010 15:54)
World Cup Betting - To Reach the Semi Finals
Reaching the World Cup Final has been the reserve of just eleven teams. Just seven previous winners (who all feature in South Africa), Sweden, Czechoslovakia, Holland and Hungary have ever reached the biggest match in world football.
Whilst picking the potential World Cup Finalists therefore generally involves looking no further than previous winners, picking teams to reach the semi-finals opens up many more possibilities.
In the last seven World Cup Finals, semi-final losers have come from far and wide. Belgium, Poland, South Korea, Croatia, Bulgaria, Sweden, Croatia, Turkey and Portugal have all reached the semi-finals before being eliminated by either a previous or future World Cup winner.
In fact, only in 1970 and 1990 have four previous World Cup winners contested the semi-finals. So, in 2010 it’s a case of looking at the draw, and at form, and working out which surprise contender can emerge.
For many, Spain are the team most likely. Other than a fourth place finish in 1950 Spain have underperformed at World Cups but they are 5/4 to reach the semi-finals in South Africa. To do that, they would need to win their group and hope Brazil win theirs otherwise the two teams would meet in Johannesburg or Cape Town in the last sixteen.
Spain’s first knockout match is also likely to be a tricky affair with Vincente del Bosque’s side likely to face either Portugal or the Ivory Coast on 29th June. They would then face another tough game against probably Italy, Denmark or Cameroon and so with ties as tough as that I’d rather look elsewhere for value.
England’s likely opponents in the semi-finals are Brazil. Whilst the 11/4 about the Three Lions reaching the final may therefore not appeal, the 5/4 on them reaching the semi-finals is a lot more tempting. To get there Fabio Capello’s men would have to beat the USA, Slovenia and Algeria in Group C, probably Serbia or Ghana in the last sixteen and France, Nigeria or Greece in the quarter finals. Even if England were to face the likes of Argentina or Mexico in the quarters, I still think they are good enough to prevail.
Emulating their 1990 semi-final appearance at 5/4 is therefore by no means beyond England.
I also like the chances of Germany at 11/2. Joachim Low’s side looked excellent in qualifying and I strongly fancy them to top Group D ahead of Australia, Serbia and Ghana. They then play the runners-up in England’s group before a likely meeting with an erratic Argentina side in the quarter finals. There don’t look to be too many obstacles in a run to the semi-finals there, and with Miroslav Klose excellent value at 25/1 to be tournament top scorer there could be some profit to make on the Germans.
The Outsiders
If you are looking for a long shot to defy all expectations then it could be worth looking no further than the host nation South Africa. Despite their lowly FIFA ranking, the Bafana Bafana performed admirably in 2009’s Confederations Cup, only losing to Brazil and Spain after very late goals. It is worth also reiterating the fact that no host nation has ever failed to get past the first round at a World Cup.
If they finish second behind France in Group A they would be scheduled to play Argentina in the last sixteen, but under Diego Maradona it’s by no means certain that the 1978 and 1986 winners will top Group B. They may therefore face the likes of South Korea or Greece in the first knockout round and in front of their home fans they could easily build momentum that would carry them further into the tournament. If you consider how South Korea performed as massive outsiders in 2002, at 40/1 to reach the semi-finals it may be worth a small interest in the host nation.
I also like the possibility of England’s Group C rivals Slovenia. Having eliminated Russia in the European play-offs I fancy Matjaž Kek’s side to overcome the USA and Algeria to finish second in Group C where they’d face Germany, Australia, Serbia or Ghana in the last sixteen. It’s a tall order but Slovenia are a talented, solid side and with some luck could overcome one of those sides to face Argentina, South Africa, Mexico or Uruguay in the quarter-finals. At 66/1 they may well be the surprise package of the 2010 World Cup.
World Cup 2010 Betting - An All European Final? (Feb 11, 2010 15:33)
World Cup Betting
There have been seven all-European World Cup Finals since the inception of the competition in 1930. With seven of the in leading contenders in South Africa from the continent there is a good chance of there being an all-European final in Johannesburg on 11th July. It is 4/11 that the winner comes from UEFA.
Spain are the tournament favourites and 2/1 to reach the World Cup Final. The draw was kind to the European Champions as, unless they or Brazil fail to win their group, they can’t meet until the final itself. Group H also looks the most straightforward of the pools with Spain facing Switzerland, Chile and Honduras.
However, as I have said before I just don’t think Spain will win in South Africa. Only one European Champion has ever gone on to win the World Cup two years later - West Germany in 1972 and 1974 - and in the last six World Cups the reigning European champion has reached no further than the quarter finals. Spain have also arrived at World Cups with talented squads in the past before underperforming when it matters, failing to beat the likes of Nigeria, Belgium and South Korea in recent tournaments.
With a potential last sixteen clash against the Ivory Coast or Portugal, I’d look elsewhere for value.
The European team with the best chance of reaching the final is Germany and they are available at 11/2. After a winnable group and a likely last sixteen match against the USA the 1990 champions are likely to meet hosts South Africa, Mexico or Argentina in the quarter finals. I don’t see anything to be frightened of there, and so a semi-final against the likes of Spain or Italy will be their main challenge. I think they have enough experience, flair and goals to go far in South Africa and the 11/2 on them reaching the final is good value.
Many believe the time is right for England to finally reach the latter stages of a World Cup, and a favourable draw will help. France or Argentina look to be the strongest potential quarter final opponents although, if all goes as predicted, Brazil await in the semi-finals. Watching England played off the park in their recent friendly with the five times champions gave me little confidence that the Three Lions would be able to overcome Brazil in South Africa. Fabio Capello’s side’s best hope is that Brazil start slowly and fail to win Group G and then an open half of the draw may see them face the likes of Portugal or Holland in the semis. They are 11/4 to reach the final.
Italy are another dark horse for the 2010 World Cup. Marcello Lippi’s side have a good chance to play themselves into some form with group matches against Slovakia, Paraguay and New Zealand although they may face Spain in the quarter-finals. With the quality in their squad I really don’t think the Azzuri should be wary of their rivals and I actually think they are a good bet at 5/1 to reach the final in July.
If you then consider the potential of Holland, Portugal, France, Denmark and even outsiders like Serbia and Slovenia, there is a good case to be made for all all European final on 11th July. Germany v Spain at 22/1 or England v Spain at 14/1 represent the most likely all-UEFA final and it is 28/1 that we will see a repeat of the 1966 final with England taking on Germany.
Brazil are likely to be the team that has most to say about that, however, and are 5/2 to reach the final and prevent an all European affair.
WC Top Goalscorer Betting - Spanish Strikers (Feb 11, 2010 15:16)
World Cup Top Goalscorer Betting
Spain are likely arrive in South Africa as tournament favourites. They also have one of the most celebrated frontlines in world football, and two of their three star strikers feature prominently in the World Cup Top Goalscorer betting.
David Villa won the Golden Boots at Euro 2008 as his four goals helped Spain lift the trophy. Villa is 9/1 favourite to take the World Cup Golden Shoe in 2010. Fernando Torres has cemented his place as one of the planet’s leading strikers over recent seasons and is 11/1 to top score in South Africa.
So, why then won’t either of them pick up this award?
The Draw
In each of the last eleven World Cup Finals, the top goalscorer has come from a team that has reached at least the semi-finals. The exceptions are Oleg Salenko, who hit five in one match in 1994, and England’s own Gary Lineker, who scored six goals on the way to England’s quarter final elimination in 1986.
Spain should have no problems in escaping from Group H, but they will then face a tricky last sixteen tie against Portugal, the Ivory Coast or even Brazil. I actually think Vicente del Bosque’s side could come a cropper at this stage but even if they do go through they are likely to play Italy in the quarter finals. I just don’t think Spain will get far enough in the tournament for either Villa or Torres to score enough goals.
The Rivals
The World Cup brings together the world’s best hitmen and there are many great players who will have their sights on the Golden Shoe award.
My favourite is German striker Miroslav Klose. With five goals in both 2002 and 2006, Klose is a proven performer on the big stage. Germany should progress well in South Africa and at 25/1 he is a big price to repeat his recent World Cup exploits.
Brazil are a good tip to go all the way in the tournament and with a settled number 9 in the shape of Luis Fabiano, he could also become the sixth Brazilian in history to top score in a World Cup. Italy’s Alberto Gilardino is also good value at 33/1 considering he’ll have plenty of chances against New Zealand, Slovakia and Paraguay in Group F.
Add to that the likes of Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi and you can’t say with any degree of certainty that the Spanish duo will outscore any of these other great players.
The Pressure
Only once has a European Champion ever won the World Cup two years later. In recent years, the quarter-final has been the best performance by a Euro winner. Spain have been in this position before; arriving at a World Cup with great expectations only to be eliminated early. Whilst Villa and Torres both have big game experience, I don’t think Spain can replicate their consistency and resolve that they showed in Austria and Switzerland in South Africa.
The weight of expectation has been Spain’s Achilles heel before – arriving as favourites adds a whole new level of pressure I am just not sure they can deal with.
The Injuries/The Formations
Fernando Torres has started just 15 matches for Liverpool this season and, amazingly, made only one appearance for the national side. Injuries have plagued the Liverpool striker over recent months and even if he is recovered by the time the World Cup come around (and it is a big ‘if’) he won’t have played many matches.
David Villa’s thigh injury kept him out of the Euro 2008 final. Interestingly, the promotion of Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas to the starting line up gave Spain a better balance and employing a 4-5-1 formation with Torres as a lone frontman actually helped the eventual champions. Spain have used both 4-4-2 and 4-5-1 since, and so if del Bosque decides to strengthen his midfield in South Africa it is quite possible that either Torres or Villa won’t start all the matches. Without being on the pitch, it’s hard to see how they will score the goals needed to win the Golden Shoe.
Verdict
If Spain do manage to repeat their Euro 2008 triumph and win the World Cup, you can be sure that it will be the likes of Villa and Torres that will have fired them there. However, for all the reasons above I think there are better teams as well as strikers with better chances to take the prestigious Top Goalscorer award than the Spanish pair.
England Betting - Number 1 Problem At The World Cup (Feb 11, 2010 13:50)
England Betting
England are 11/2 third favourites to win the World Cup in South Africa. With a kind draw, a decent climate and no shortage of homegrown talent, Fabio Capello’s side go into a World Cup with the best chance of success for some years.
However, there is one major problem which could undermine England’s chances of success in South Africa: their goalkeeper.
Even now, just a matter of weeks before a World Cup tournament, England do not have an experienced, settled number One. Injury, form and selection have kept most of the contenders out of action this season. How satisfactory is it that the third favourites don’t know who they’ll select in goal for the most important football tournament there is?
Robert Green is the main contender and the West Ham stopper is 2/7 to be selected in Capello’s 23 man squad. Whilst he is a talented keeper, his team sit amongst the relegation contenders in the Premier League and he hasn’t excelled in his eight games for England to date. In October he became the first England goalkeeper ever to be sent off in an international fixture as his side lost 1-0 to Ukraine.
Whilst he may be a decent enough domestic player, he has very little experience in European or international football. Throwing him into a World Cup with under a dozen caps to his name looks a very risky strategy.
At the other end of the spectrum is the 40 year old David James. James looked to have secured the number One spot for England, starting the first thirteen internationals under Capello. However, injury has blighted James over recent months and with Capello vowing that he will only select players who are 100% fit, time is running out for James. He hasn’t started an England international since April 2009.
James is 1/4 to be selected for South Africa and if he can regain full fitness and get a decent run in Portsmouth’s side, he may well win back his starting place by the time the tournament comes around. Relying on the fitness of a 40 year old for your World Cup campaign is hardly reassuring, though.
The bookie’s third favourite to make Capello’s 23 man party is Birmingham City’s Joe Hart.
With twenty-one u21 caps, Hart is one of the most talented products of the England youth set-up. He has been in terrific form since his loan move to Birmingham City in the summer, helping the Blues to eighth in the Premier League table. Whilst young (he is just 22) he is playing regularly and has had the chance to impress Capello with his consistent performances. I expect to see Hart in an England jersey in the spring friendly matches as he stakes his claim for a place in the South Africa squad.
Of the remaining contenders, the most likely to get the nod is Manchester United’s Ben Foster.
Long touted as an England number One, everyone expected Foster to step into Edwin van der Sar’s shoes at United before being installed as his country’s stopper. However, poor form for United has seen Foster drop to third in the pecking order and it’s unlikely Capello will select someone not playing regular club football.
Foster’s days at United look numbered and he is likely to have to move to resurrect his international chances. That’s not going to happen before the summer, however, and despite some promising appearances in an England jersey it looks increasingly likely that he will miss out. You get the feeling that Capello would love Foster to be his first choice, but Sir Alex Ferguson’s selection policy isn’t making that easy. Have you seen anything in Foster’s appearances that would encourage you to play him at a World Cup? No, me neither.
Of the remaining contenders, Paul Robinson and Chris Kirkland are 11/4 and 11/1 shots to make Capello’s World Cup squad. Robinson has rarely featured under Capello whilst Kirkland, whilst talented, has been hampered by injury for several years. It would take injuries to other contenders for Robinson to play in his second World Cup.
So, England go into a World Cup with goalkeeping choices including a 40 year old, an inexperienced but solid Premier League performer, an untried 22 year old and someone who is third choice for his club side. It’s a long way from the days of Gordon Banks, Ray Clemence, Peter Shilton and David Seaman, and this uncertainty and lack of outstanding performer could well hinder England’s chances of reaching the latter stages in South Africa.
Betting Tips - Playing The Odds World Cup 2010 Special (Jan 27, 2010 17:54)
Playing the Odds is our weekly column where we try and seek value in some longer odds bets. Here are our four top long-shot bets for the 2010 World Cup.
Frank Lampard to be England’s top World Cup goalscorer at 11/2
Since Capello’s arrival and the introduction of a more defensively minded midfielder to play alongside Frank Lampard, the Chelsea man has flourished. He was joint top scorer for England in 2009 and is key to England’s chances in South Africa.
Whilst Wayne Rooney is favourite in this market, I prefer the claims of Lampard. Rooney hasn’t scored in an international tournament since 2004 and with Lampard on penalty duty for England he can fire the Three Lions into the later knockout stages of the tournament.
Germany v Brazil to meet in the 2010 Final at 25/1
These two mighty nations have only ever met once at the World Cup - in the 2002 Final. Brazil won 2-0 that day and it is more than likely that these two teams could face up for the second time in three finals in Johannesburg on 11th July.
I expect Brazil to perform strongly in South Africa and they are my strong tip to win in 2010. To meet them in the Final, Germany would probably have to beat the USA, Argentina and Spain although with their mixture of individual stars, experienced strikers and seasoned international performers there is no reason Joachim Löw’s side can’t do so.
Humberto Suazo to be World Cup Top Goalscorer at 80/1
He may not be well known outside his home nation of Chile and the Spanish city of Zaragoza (where he plays his club football) but Humberto Suazo could be a force to be reckoned with at this summer’s World Cup. The 28 year old striker has seventeen international goals to his name and netted ten times as Chile finished runners-up to Brazil in the South American World Cup qualifying group.
Chile are prolific scorers and hit 32 goals in qualifying. They are a youthful, attacking side and with Spain, Switzerland and Honduras in Group H, goals are certainly a possibility. Suazo has scored against top quality opposition including Brazil, Sweden and the Ivory Coast and he could easily hit several goals in Chile’s run to the knockout stages.
Slovenia to reach the World Cup semi-finals at 22/1
Whilst the World Cup trophy might have been lifted by just seven nations, the semi-finalists of a World Cup are an altogether harder to predict group. In recent tournaments Croatia, Portugal, South Korea, Belgium, Sweden, Turkey and Bulgaria have all reached the last four and so picking a random outsider for glory isn’t as daft a bet as it may seem.
Slovenia eliminated Russia, the Czech Republic and Poland in qualifying and so they are not in South Africa by accident. Whilst they don’t boast many household names, coach Matjaž Kek has fashioned a solid, hard-working side captained by West Bromwich Albion midfielder Robert Koren.
To reach the semis they are likely to have to beat Germany or England and France, Nigeria or Greece. It’s a tall order, but one unusual nation normally emerges at World Cup time and at 22/1 it would be terrific for it to be the Slovenians.
posted by getvisible @ 9:07 PM
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